The narrow election victory by Romano Prodi’s centre-left alliance was the worst imaginable outcome in terms of Italy’s chances to remain in the eurozone beyond 2015. I would expect international investors to start taking speculative bets on Italy’s euro membership within the lifetime of a Prodi government.

These are not bets on Mr Prodi’s political commitment to the euro. It would be difficult to find a more pro-European politician than the former president of the European Commission. These are bets on economic circumstances that might force a government to take decisions that are unthinkable until the moment they become inevitable.