The world may be turning its attention to the next chapter in Iran's nuclear drama - this week's meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency's board of governors - but the growing tension inside Iran's borders is also noteworthy. Political rifts are widening in Tehran, not only between Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, the hard-line president, and his moderate opponents, but also between Mr Ahmadi-Nejad's rough-hewn clan (comprised mainly of Revolutionary Guards and basij volunteer militiamen) and the conservative insiders who have traditionally run the government. As these tensions peak, the US and Europe should work to exploit Iran's turbulent, internal dynamic through a two-track strategy: launching dialogue with Mr Ahmadi-Nejad's political rivals about mutually important issues and aggressively engaging with the Iranian people to promote democratic reform.
In his short time in office, Mr Ahmadi-Nejad has infuriated the moderate pragmatist camp, led by his chief rival, Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president. Only days after declaring that "Israel should be wiped off the map", Mr Ahmadi-Nejad purged Iran's diplomatic corps, firing 40 Iranian ambassadors, including several envoys involved in nuclear negotiations with European officials. The new president saw the moderate dispositions of these representatives as barriers to hardening Iran's foreign policy stance.
It is to be expected that Mr Ahmadi-Nejad would seek to demolish his opposition, but he has also challenged fellow conservatives, many of whom do not subscribe to his populist style and fret about his record since taking office. Capital is fleeing the country, yet the president fired seven state bank directors this month and tried (unsuccessfully) to push through parliament his choice for oil minister, a man with no experience in the field.
Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader and most powerful conservative, is now taking steps to rein in Mr Ahmadi-Nejad and his cohorts, especially on the nuclear issue where Tehran cannot afford to lose Moscow and Beijing's vital support. IAEA inspectors have been granted access to some previously restricted military sites, and Iran recently relinquished a document on building a nuclear warhead. To balance Mr Ahmadi-Nejad on the domestic front, Ayatollah Khamenei moved last month to increase the power of Iran's Expediency Council, headed by Mr Rafsanjani.
For many of the regime's insiders, maintaining power and wealth in a largely hostile environment is a far greater concern than keeping the revolutionary flame alive. While some top mullahs do genuinely fear and hate the US, others use anti-Americanism for its rhetorical value alone. Yet the threat they face from Mr Ahmadi-Nejad is decidedly real.
As Mr Ahmadi-Nejad's efforts to cultivate a revolutionary climate continue, Iran will find itself increasingly ostracised internationally and fragmented internally. The US and Europe should seize this opportunity, quietly launching high-level discussions with Mr Rafsanjani and other pragmatists who worry about Mr Ahmadi-Nejad's efforts to push them out. The talks should focus on issues critical to both sides - the nuclear question for the west, the economy for the Iranians. The aim should not be to embolden the pragmatists per se but rather to shift power away from the militant hard-liners. As an example, convincing moderates to support the recent Russian proposal to enrich uranium for Iran's nuclear fuel within Russia would be a boon to both sides. The pragmatists would be seen at home as saving Iran from United Nations Security Council referral, assuming they can fend off the inevitable backlash from the far right, while the US and Europe could breathe easier about Iran's nuclear aims.
Beyond talking with moderates, the US should take its case directly to the Iranian people. The regime thrives off using the US as a scapegoat, bashing the "Great Satan" to deflect blame for Iran's economic woes. Through its reticence to engage with Iran, the US does little to stymie this tactic. Allowing more Iranian students to study in the US, reaching out to Iranians through Farsi blogs and satellite television and publicly recognising Iran's right to peaceful nuclear technology would all be steps in the right direction.
Mr Ahmadi-Nejad's victory was a blow to those hoping for a less threatening, more democratic Iran. But his radical adventure may also create opportunities for his foes - both foreign and domestic - to hasten his demise.
The writer, until recently a fellow at Stanford University, writes for Newsweek International
