Financial Times FT.com

South of China

Published: May 19 2005 03:00 | Last updated: May 19 2005 03:00

It is almost impossible these days to discuss the global economy without talking about China, whether the issue is textile exports or foreign exchange markets. Given the country's fast-growing share of world output and international trade, this China obsession is entirely natural.

News this week from other parts of the continent, however, underlines the risks of looking only at China. Rising economic growth, privatisation plans and an eagerness for foreign capital are prompting investors to turn their gaze to western and southern Asia. On Monday, Indonesia, south-east Asia's largest economy, disclosed higher than expected growth of over 6 per cent in the first quarter, with inward investment approvals doubling to $5bn (£2.7bn) in the first four months.

Pakistan said its growth would reach 8.3 per cent - the highest for 20 years - in the year to June. By then, the government wants to raise $1.7bn from the partial privatisation of state companies involved in telecommunications, oil marketing and banking.

Not to be outdone, Palaniappan Chidambaram, the Indian finance minister, told the Financial Times of plans to kickstart the country's stalled privatisation programme. He said the national airlines were slated for stock market listings, called for doors to be opened "a little wider" to foreign investors and suggested a more liberal approach to outside investment in banks.

China, meanwhile, may soon feel the first signs of investor fatigue. Analysts say hidden obstacles mean manufacturing in China is not as cheap as it seems. Investors in the domestic market complain of ferocious competition. Financial markets are dysfunctional. And economists agree that a slowdown is under way, even if few go as far as the prediction of CLSA, an investment bank, of a painful fall to 3-5 per cent growth by 2007.

China's deficiencies should not be exaggerated. Its transport infrastructure, for example, is still vastly superior to south Asia's, and it continues to attract 10 times as much foreign direct investment annually as India. Many Asian economies, furthermore, owe their recent success to China's growing demand for raw materials, machinery and components - although interestingly this is less true of south Asian economies than of north-east Asian ones such as South Korea.

Conversely, India, Pakistan, Indonesia and the other nations of southern Asia face a range of daunting challenges, including the need to sweep away archaic bureaucracy, restore political stability and eradicate corruption. Investors have horror stories about ownership rights enshrined in law books but not in reality.

The growing foreign interest in Asian markets and manufacturing bases other than China is a welcome development. It will benefit some of Asia's poorest countries, encourage Chinese leaders to accelerate their own reforms and help create a broader and more integrated Asian economy.

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