Over the past year, a persistent gap has built up between Europe’s monetary policymakers and those who make a living watching them. This spring, various organised groups of central bank watchers were debating whether and when the European Central Bank would cut interest rates. In fact, the bank decided to raise its rates.

Although the ECB’s decision was not unanimous, a clear majority of the central bankers on its governing council supported the increase. The ECB watchers have essentially the same information but they arrived at a different conclusion. Indeed, I recall one ECB watchers’ group in which not a single participant voted in favour of a rise in interest rates at the same time as the ECB did.